Was the tsunami in Japan predicted by delusional tractor driver Nir ben Artzi?

No, it was NOT.

Some people are saying that he predicted it. Thus, from Yeranen Yaakov:

Kikar has an article with videos how the controversial figure R' [sic] Nir Ben Artzi predicted the tsunami.  According to this, Rav Dahan now has company as a tsunami-predicter.

You can see this prediction at Tomer Devorah's new blog - Geula Messages - from Parshat Ki Tisa (emphasis mine):

Every earthquake that passed over us was only preparation and introduction to open the big one - for the severe quake and great shaking in the world. The floods will be in places where man doesn't believe that there will be floods. Volcanic eruptions will be very severe. People will see in the media hard things that the eye of man will not be able to tolerate. Snows, rains, severe winds; the tsunami in readiness for many places; everything in stages and in it's proper time. All this HKB"H is doing for the sake of the Jews. The hatred for Jews all over the world strengthens from day to day. They won't be allowed to earn a living with honor. They will be injured in their stores, in restaurants, in coffee shops so that the Jews will come to Eretz Yisrael. The worldwide economy will go and die out in very place and Eretz Yisrael will flourish and develop without end. All of this is happening because of the redemption and revelation of Melech HaMashiach in our days.

The Mashiach is here among us. He is the final designated one from the beginning of the world and is here, existing and operating. There is no other time period that he will come, this is the period and this is the time to reveal Melech HaMashiach. HKB"H is shaking the whole world; shaking every one; shaking every Jew and Jewess in Am Yisrael and in the whole world so that everyone will declare: "His Name is One and He is One and there is nothing except for Him. He is the King of all kings, HaKadosh Baruch Hu."

So too Shirat Devorah, though she is more circumspect with her caveat:

, and it certainly seems as if Rabbi ben Artzi did predict/"see" an earthquake/tsunami, although he did not state where it was occurring (see here)

The reasons that Nir ben Artzi's words do not constitute a prediction share much in common with the requirement for the ot, the sign, used to establish a navi as a navi emet or, if the sign fails, to establish him as a navi sheker. This does NOT MEAN that I am labeling him in this particular post as a navi sheker or navi emet. I want to save that discussion for a separate post. What it DOES mean is that halacha recognizes the strong possibility of spurious predictions coming true by random chance, and thus imposed requirements on the sign establishing a navi; and that we should be cognizant of the same strong possibility even if is is (purportedly) not nevuah in question.

The requirements to establish a true prophet as true may be found in the Rambam's Mishneh Torah, sefer HaMada, Hilchot Yesodei HaTorah, perek 10:

א  כָּל נָבִיא שֶׁיַּעֲמֹד לָנוּ וְיֹאמַר שֶׁה' שְׁלָחוֹ, אֵינוּ צָרִיךְ לַעֲשׂוֹת אוֹת כְּאֶחָד מֵאוֹתוֹת מֹשֶׁה רַבֵּנוּ אוֹ כְּאוֹתוֹת אֵלִיָּהוּ וֶאֱלִישָׁע, שֶׁיֵּשׁ בָּהֶן שִׁנּוּי מִנְהָגוֹ שֶׁלָּעוֹלָם; אֵלָא הָאוֹת שֶׁלּוֹ שֶׁיֹּאמַר דְּבָרִים הָעֲתִידִין לִהְיוֹת בָּעוֹלָם, וְיֵאָמְנוּ דְּבָרָיו, שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר "וְכִי תֹאמַר, בִּלְבָבֶךָ:  אֵיכָה נֵדַע אֶת-הַדָּבָר . . ." (דברים יח,כא). 

ב  לְפִיכָּךְ כְּשֶׁיָּבוֹא אָדָם הָרָאוּי לַנְּבוּאָה בְּמַלְאֲכוּת ה', וְלֹא יָבוֹא לְהוֹסִיף וְלֹא לִגְרֹעַ, אֵלָא לַעֲבֹד אֶת ה' בְּמִצְווֹת הַתּוֹרָה--אֵין אוֹמְרִין לוֹ קְרַע לָנוּ אֶת הַיָּם אוֹ הַחֲיֵה מֵת וְכַיּוֹצֶא בְּאֵלּוּ, וְאַחַר כָּךְ נַאֲמִין בָּךְ.  אֵלָא אוֹמְרִין לוֹ, אִם נָבִיא אַתָּה, אֱמֹר לָנוּ דְּבָרִים הָעֲתִידִין לִהְיוֹת; וְהוּא אוֹמֵר, וְאָנוּ מְחַכִּים לוֹ לִרְאוֹת הֲיָבוֹאוּ דְּבָרָיו:  אִם לֹא יָבוֹאוּ, וְאַפִלּוּ נָפַל דָּבָר אֶחָד קָטָן--בַּיָּדוּעַ שְׁהוּא נְבִיא שֶׁקֶר. 

ג  וְאִם בָּאוּ דְּבָרָיו כֻּלָּם, יִהְיֶה בְּעֵינֵינוּ נֶאֱמָן.  [ב] וּבוֹדְקִין אוֹתוֹ פְּעָמִים הַרְבֵּה.  אִם נִמְצְאוּ דְּבָרָיו כֻּלָּם נֶאֱמָנִין, הֲרֵי זֶה נְבִיא אֱמֶת, כְּמוֹ שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר בִּשְׁמוּאֵל, "וַיֵּדַע, כָּל-יִשְׂרָאֵל, מִדָּן, וְעַד-בְּאֵר שָׁבַע:  כִּי נֶאֱמָן שְׁמוּאֵל, לְנָבִיא לַה'" (שמואל א ג,כ). 

ד  [ג] וַהֲלוֹא הַמְּעוֹנְנִים וְהַקּוֹסְמִים אוֹמְרִין מַה עֲתִיד לִהְיוֹת, וּמַה הֶפְרֵשׁ בֵּין הַנָּבִיא וּבֵינָם--אֵלָא שֶׁהַמְּעוֹנְנִים וְהַקּוֹסְמִים וְכַיּוֹצֶא בָּהֶן, מִקְצַת דִּבְרֵיהֶן מִתְקַיְּמִין וּמִקְצָתָן אֵין מִתְקַיְּמִין:  כְּעִנְיַן שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר "יַעַמְדוּ-נָא וְיוֹשִׁיעֻךְ הֹבְרֵי שָׁמַיִם, הַחֹזִים בַּכּוֹכָבִים, מוֹדִעִים לֶחֳדָשִׁים, מֵאֲשֶׁר יָבֹאוּ עָלָיִךְ" (ישעיהו מז,יג)--"מֵאֲשֶׁר", וְלֹא כָּל אֲשֶׁר.  וְאִפְשָׁר שֶׁלֹּא יִתְקַיַּם מִדִּבְרֵיהֶם כְּלוּם, אֵלָא יִטְעוּ בַּכֹּל, כְּעִנְיַן שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר "מֵפֵר אֹתוֹת בַּדִּים, וְקֹסְמִים יְהוֹלֵל" (ישעיהו מד,כה). 

ה  אֲבָל הַנָּבִיא--כָּל דְּבָרָיו קַיָּמִין, שֶׁנֶּאֱמָר "כִּי לֹא יִפֹּל מִדְּבַר ה' אַרְצָה" (מלכים ב י,י).  וְכֵן הוּא אוֹמֵר "הַנָּבִיא אֲשֶׁר-אִתּוֹ חֲלוֹם, יְסַפֵּר חֲלוֹם, וַאֲשֶׁר דְּבָרִי אִתּוֹ, יְדַבֵּר דְּבָרִי אֱמֶת:  מַה-לַתֶּבֶן אֶת-הַבָּר, נְאֻם-ה'" (ירמיהו כג,כח)--כְּלוֹמַר שֶׁדִּבְרֵי הַקּוֹסְמִים וְהַחֲלוֹמוֹת כְּתֶבֶן שֶׁנִּתְעָרַב בּוֹ מְעַט בָּר, וּדְבַר ה' כַּבָּר שְׁאֵין בּוֹ תֶּבֶן כְּלָל.

That is, he needs to make a prediction, giving specific information about the future:

אֵלָא אוֹמְרִין לוֹ, אִם נָבִיא אַתָּה, אֱמֹר לָנוּ דְּבָרִים הָעֲתִידִין לִהְיוֹת; וְהוּא אוֹמֵר, וְאָנוּ מְחַכִּים לוֹ לִרְאוֹת הֲיָבוֹאוּ דְּבָרָיו:  אִם לֹא יָבוֹאוּ, וְאַפִלּוּ נָפַל דָּבָר אֶחָד קָטָן--בַּיָּדוּעַ שְׁהוּא נְבִיא שֶׁקֶר

We wait to see if they come true. If they do not, even if one aspect does not come true, it is known that he is a navi sheker. Meanwhile, meonenim and kosemim make predictions, some of which come true, but the difference is that:

אֵלָא שֶׁהַמְּעוֹנְנִים וְהַקּוֹסְמִים וְכַיּוֹצֶא בָּהֶן, מִקְצַת דִּבְרֵיהֶן מִתְקַיְּמִין וּמִקְצָתָן אֵין מִתְקַיְּמִין

some of their words come true and some do not.

I would spell this out in a different way. Make enough vague predictions, and by random chance, some will come true. A navi emes to establish himself should provide a prediction with a specific time or time-frame, make specific predictions, and there should be no kvetch. And even then, it might have been a fluke, so the people can test him repeatedly, and he must be consistently specific and accurate.

Maybe, if Nir ben Artzi, is not trying to be a prophet, he should not be judged by these standards; and perhaps one could say that since he is making negative predictions, Hashem can change His mind as people do teshuvah. This may well be the case, but if so, this is not a way of proving that his predictions that do come true are real predictions. At the most, one cannot establish him one way or the other.

But I would like to evaluate delusional tractor driver Nir ben Artzi's predictions in terms of specificity,  accuracy, and precision.

1) Did Nir ben Artzi say that on date X, in place Y, there would be a tsunami? This is what he said, bolding from Yeranen Yaakov:

Every earthquake that passed over us was only preparation and introduction to open the big one - for the severe quake and great shaking in the world. The floods will be in places where man doesn't believe that there will be floods. Volcanic eruptions will be very severe. People will see in the media hard things that the eye of man will not be able to tolerate. Snows, rains, severe winds; the tsunami in readiness for many places; everything in stages and in it's proper time.

"Floods in places man does not believe there will be floods". This is not necessarily associated with the quake / tsunami. Do people really believe there would be no floods in Japan? Here is a news item from 2010, just one year ago:

Japan too has been hit by devastating floods in the northern Kyushu and Chugoku regions.

So, all he said was "places man does not believe there will be floods". Not "Japan". How many countries are there in the world? How many countries, had they been hit with floods, could you have applied this incredibly vague statement to? Be really honest with yourselves, those who are applying this to Japan, whether you would have applied the same to 100 other countries.

And when was this to occur? He did not state. And so, it could be the next day, it could be the next year, it could be the next decade.

So too,

People will see in the media hard things that the eye of man will not be able to tolerate.

Be honest, and ask how many things could have happened that this would apply to.
This thus fails the test of specificity.

2) Did every detail come true, or is this parallel to Rambam's description of meonenim and kosmim? Let us see these predictions again, but I will reverse Yeranen Yaakov's bolding:

Every earthquake that passed over us was only preparation and introduction to open the big one - for the severe quake and great shaking in the world. The floods will be in places where man doesn't believe that there will be floods. Volcanic eruptions will be very severe. People will see in the media hard things that the eye of man will not be able to tolerate. Snows, rains, severe winds; the tsunami in readiness for many places; everything in stages and in it's proper time. All this HKB"H is doing for the sake of the Jews. The hatred for Jews all over the world strengthens from day to day. They won't be allowed to earn a living with honor. They will be injured in their stores, in restaurants, in coffee shops so that the Jews will come to Eretz Yisrael. The worldwide economy will go and die out in very place and Eretz Yisrael will flourish and develop without end. All of this is happening because of the redemption and revelation of Melech HaMashiach in our days.

How many of the bolded items which I bolded came true? Did the tsunami hit many places, or just Japan? Are Jews now suddenly oppressed in the way he describes? Are there severe volcanic eruptions -- which was what was really associated with seeing intolerable things in the media.

And this is only in the one prediction for that week, Ki Tisa. This lunatic predicts dire things every week. For example, that they will attack synagogues such that our Sifrei Torah are in danger. How many of those predictions came true?

Yes, if you make 1000 vague predictions, eventually one or two will come true, or true enough that your followers will believe that they came true. But we are talking about an accuracy rate of about 0.02%. If there was a contest of marksmanship, and I took a submachine gun and sprayed bullets all over the room, such that out of 20,000 bullets, one accidentally hit the target, but all the others missed, would you say I was an expert marksman? The same is true for Nir ben Artzi.

As such, I am not impressed with Nir's predictive powers. I would indeed have been surprised if none of his predictions came true, because he predicts so much, and so much is going on in the world.

See my similar remarks, by the way, about the Tsunami Kabbalist, Rabbi Shimon Dahan.