Did delusional tractor(one) driver Nir ben Artzi see the earthquake in Japan as it was happening?

My answer: NO, he did not.

There may have been an interesting coincidence, which becomes a more and more likely and unimpressive and uninteresting coincidence the more you think about its details. But Nir ben Artzi is making a much more powerful claim. He knows he cannot say event X will occur at date and time Y, because that exposes him to the probability of getting egg on his face, and so, he (or his cultists) find coincidences after the fact and try to elevate it to the same status.

Tomer Devorah lets us know about this claim:

Rabbi [sic] Ben Artzi's website is claiming that in his weekly shiuron Friday morning, 11 Mar '11, the rabbi was speaking about "a large earthquake happening in the world" at the very moment (7:45 am Israel / 2:45 Japan) that the earthquake in Japan occurred.

From Nir ben Artzi's website:

הרב [sic] ניר בן ארצי שליט"א , ביום שישי ה' אדר ב' תשע"א 11/03/2011 בשעה 7:45 בבוקר בשיעורו השבועי, בבית הכנסת "רינת ישראל" בתלמים, מדבר על רעידת אדמה גדולה שקוראת בעולם ובאותו רגע ממש רועדת האדמה ביפן.

I don't have the patience to find the full statement. I tried listening to this eleven minute video once, and he speaks quickly, so I missed it. Can someone point to the minute and second that he makes the statement about the earthquake? Maybe someone can also provide an English or Hebrew transcription of the surrounding minutes?

Anyway, he spoke about it. But let us analyze this in terms of recall, accuracy, and so on.

1) The claim is that he spoke of "a large earthquake happening in the world" at the very moment it occurred in Japan. That is, he spoke it at 7:45 AM in Israel, and it happened in Japan at 2:45 AM, and adjusting for time zones, it is the same moment. But, he speaks very quickly, and there is a lot of content in that one minute. So he said a lot of things at 7:45. More than that, the Japan earthquake did NOT occur at 2:45 AM. It occurred at 2:46 PM (14:26 JST)-- see the writeup at Wikipedia. If he is going to be miraculously, psychically speaking of the earthquake at the same time it occurred, why not get it in the same minute? In fact, that was their initial claim, that it was the same rega!

This reminds me of Moshe Rabbenu talking to Pharaoh, where he says that the Plague of the Firstborn will be kachatzot halayla. The pasuk states:
וַיֹּאמֶר מֹשֶׁה כֹּה אָמַר ה כַּחֲצֹת הַלַּיְלָה אֲנִי יוֹצֵא בְּתוֹךְ מִצְרָיִם

And peshat is possibly different, but the midrash states that this was lest the astrologers err and think Moshe was off, so Moshe said ka-chatzot, maybe a minute before or after. As Rashi writes:

"כחצות הלילה" - כהחלק הלילה כחצות כמו (מ"א יט) כעלות (תהלים קכד) בחרות אפם בנו זהו פשוטו לישבו על אופניו שאין חצות שם דבר של חצי (ברכות ד) ור"ד כמו כבחצות הלילה ואמרו שאמר משה כחצות דמשמע סמוך לו או לפניו או לאחריו ולא אמר בחצות שמא יטעו אצטגניני פרעה ויאמרו משה בדאי הוא אבל הקב"ה יודע עתיו ורגעיו אמר בחצות

Here, by Nir, there was not even a prior prediction that it would be at precisely this time, which makes it even less impressive.

2) How detailed was the prediction? It was a large earthquake somewhere in the world. That could be anywhere, any time, or varying levels on the Richter scale. It would have been more impressive had he mentioned that the earthquake would spark a tsunami and possible nuclear meltdowns. It would have been more impressive had he specified Japan. It would have been more impressive had he specified that it was happening just then.

3) This was the regular time for his weekly parsha shiur, it seems. At they write, בבוקר בשיעורו השבועי, בבית הכנסת "רינת ישראל" בתלמים. If he had spoken at a time out of the ordinary, and spoken on a topic he usually does not speak about, then it would be eerie. But he regularly speaks of earthquakes in his shiur, I would guess -- more on that in the next point -- at this time. Eventually, an earthquake somewhere in the world would likely overlap with his shiur. There are a lot of worldwide earthquakes.

4) Continuing the point of how frequently tractor driver Nir ben Artzi speaks of earthquakes, raised in the previous segment. I suppose we could listen to all the videos. But I'd rather use readily available English translations of his parsha sheets, provided to us by the efforts of Tomer Devorah/Devash on her blog, Geulah Messages. As you will see, it is week after week after week -- Shemot, Vaera, Bo, Beshalach, Yitro, Mishpatim, Terumah he happened to skip it, Tetzaveh, Vayakhel, Pekudei, and finally, most recently, Vayikra. Always about earthquakes. Here is the evidence:

We have:

Second Rosh Hashana Message

11 Elul 5770

(21 Aug '10)

...

In this special year, the Master of the World is preparing us to see, eye to eye, the light of Mashiach. HKB"H includes the fire, the wind, the water and the earth [all the elements] through floods, intense winds, earthquakes and much heat to reach to every corner of the world. 

Then,

For the New Year

27 Elul 5770

(6 Sep '10)

...

Am Yisrael feels this year that HKB"H is ruling the world; feels the power of the Creator of the World in all the world. In the floods, volcanoes, earthquakes, intense winds and the great awakening for aliyah to Eretz Yisrael from America and from Europe. These are signs of redemption and revelation of Melech HaMashiach in mercy.

...
In the coming new year, upon us for good, the world is going to pass through much turmoil like that from the past year: in the economy, in security, earthquakes, floods, volcanoes, tsunamis, intense winds, conflicts between countries and within them. Thousands of Jews will arrive to the Land from America and from Europe.


Then,

Rosh Chodesh Tevet 5771

1 Tevet 5771

(8 Dec '10)

...

The floods in the world will continue, the intense winds, the snows and the rains, earthquakes, volcanoes and tsunamis. The economy in America, in Europe and in other places, will go and collapse from day to day, everything for the sake of the redemption of Am Yisrael.

Then,

Parshat Shemot 5771

18 Tevet 5771

(25 Dec '10)

...

The Master of the World is using all the spirits of Heaven, the dry land, the sea, the wind and the fire. At this moment, there is snow in Europe and in other places there are strong and difficult winds and earthquakes or fires and Jew-hatred.

Then,

Parshat Va'era 5771

25 Tevet 5771

(1 Jan '11)

...

HKB”H is striking every place where there is arrogance, because this is the root of Divine punishment---arrogance. HKB”H is using hard and strong winds, using the sea, the water, the rains and floods. He’s using fire, whether it’s heat, fires or explosives, as a weapon to strike people. He’s using the earth, that ever since the Mabul the earth is in trauma and waits for the moment, the great day when the whole world will be holy and pure---earthquakes. And everything, in order to rock the world in order to shake it up, to unite, consolidate and unify all the Jews in the world, that they are Jews, to come to the Holy Land of Israel, the defended and the guarded.

Then,

Parshat Bo 5771

3 Shevat 5771

(8 Jan '11)

...

Who doesn’t understand the hints of HKB”H? In Australia, there are floods over an enormous area already a long time and this will continue more. There are earthquakes in many places. In Israel, there was an earthquake on motzaei Shabbat and this was a warning in order to wake up Am Yisrael to love, peace, unity, repair of character traits and fulfillment of the commandments. Everyone who fulfills the commandments has the certainty from the Master of the World that he will be preserved and protected and he will have livelihood and length of days without restraint. HKB”H requests that we fulfill the commandments and from there everything will open.

Then,

Parshat Beshallach 5771

10 Shevat 5771

(15 Jan '11)

...

The Master of the World is strengthening the floods, the winds, the fire and the earthquakes. One time He gives severe floods and one time He makes severe earthquakes. One time He makes severe volcanoes and fire and one time He brings a severe wind that smashes trees and mountains. Every day HKB”H is strengthening His works and every week we’re feeling this strengthening in the world more and more.

Then,

Parshat Yitro 5771

17 Shevat 5771 

(22 Jan '11)

...

Every synagogue in the world is in danger, is under threat of being dismantled. They're under threats and it will be done. Pack up all the holy and pure things that are in the synagogues and bring them to Eretz Yisrael. The exile is being ended. All the holy and pure things need to be in Eretz Yisrael, on holy ground. Understand, chaval that it should be an embarrassing, shameful and insulting situation. It's worthwhile that the honor of the Jews of the world not be harmed. You need to hurry and pack up from all the countries of the world and come urgently to Eretz Yisrael. Don't humiliate yourselves, come down from the tall tree because Hashem is uprooting this tree. Floods, volcanoes, mighty and severe winds, earthquakes---they won't cease, these will get stronger from day to day. 

Then,

Parshat Mishpatim 5771

24 Shevat 5771

(29 Jan '11)

...

Volcanoes, earthquakes, severe storm winds will hurt every country outside of the Holy Eretz Yisrael. The Creator of the World is raising a standard – every week it’s higher and this won’t cease until the world’s repair is finished.

Also, about the same time, at Kikar Shabbat:

Kikar Shabbat (28 Jan '11)

28 Jan '11

...

I RECEIVED A GIFT FROM HASHEM
Also an earthquake is expected to befall Israel. "It will result in shaking, only in order that we will understand that HKB"H gives us good fortune. With Hashem, there is no difference between a Jew who is religious and one who is not."

Then, he skips explicit mention of an earthquake in Terumah. But next, in Tetzaveh:

Parshat Tetzaveh 5771

8 Adar I 5771
(12 Feb '11)

...

HKB”H wants that we will know and understand the hints, that He is doing everything for the good of Am Yisrael. The countries surrounding Israel and in the whole world will continue to be intertwined and to get into arguments one with another, until it’s over. The forces of nature are violently shaking: floods, blizzards, ice, intense angry storm winds, earthquakes, volcanoes – beginning to breathe and on the way to eruption. 

Then, the one being promoted as him predicting the tsunami:

Parshat Ki Tisa 5771

15 Adar I 5771
(19 Feb '11)

...

It is the hand of Hashem in everything that is happening all over the world. There is a severe "earthquake" in all the Arab lands. The earthquake is under their feet. HKB"H has entangled and embroiled nations, between them and among themselves. How precisely and surely HKB"H works; all this without harm to Am Yisrael in anything.

...

Every earthquake that passed over us was only preparation and introduction to open the big one - for the severe quake and great shaking in the world. The floods will be in places where man doesn't believe that there will be floods. Volcanic eruptions will be very severe. People will see in the media hard things that the eye of man will not be able to tolerate. Snows, rains, severe winds; the tsunami in readiness for many places; 

Then,

Parshat Vayakhel 5771

22 Adar I 5771
(26 Feb '11)

...

In every month and in every week, HKB"H surprises the world with something else. One time, volcanoes and one time floods; one time severe winds and one time earthquakes, rain, snow and ice. One time conflicts inside countries and one time severe economic downfall in the world. All this so that Am Yisrael will believe in HKB"H.

Then,

Parshat Pekudei - Sheqalim 5771

26 Adar I 5771
(2 Mar '11)

The forces of nature will continue to operate and to take apart every place of evil in the world. Floods, rain, ice, snow, tsunamis, earthquakes, volcanoes, intense storm winds, complications in flights and complications in ships and there will be great and revealed miracles for Am Yisrael.

Then, the latest, from Vayikra:

Parshat Vayikra 5771

6 Adar II 5771
(12 Mar '11)

...
To Ya'aqov there were children from Leah, Rachel, Zilpah and Bilhah. Am Yisrael is built from all types of souls and every one is strong, holy and pure, clear and unblemished. Each neshamah takes upon itself a tikun to repair the whole world. There is no difference between Jews. Rabbis, go out to Am Yisrael. Make large conferences, sermons and prayers - in order to cancel the decrees of earthquakes and floods that are going to flood the world.
...
You need to be very careful on the highways in Eretz Yisrael. There will be problems with the ships and the planes. Strong storm winds, earthquakes and the most difficult floods will continue. The human eye can not see what is going to pass upon the planet and upon the people, upon the animals and even upon the trees.

He similarly spoke of earthquakes in his remarks on Tzav, though those are not presently up on the Internet in English. These printed pages are not the same as his speech, it seems, but still, this shows that he consistently predicts earthquakes.

When we realize this, it becomes much less impressive. Week after week, a lunatic gets up and predicts earthquakes. And of course, earthquakes naturally occur in this world. And one week, during his regular earthquake prediction shiur, an earthquake occurs, a minute after he spoke in general rather than specific terms about it. I am sure convinced!

And if it had not been an earthquake, it could have been a volcano, or strong winds, or floods, because he often talks about those as well, and it is certainly within the realm of random chances that eventually, some catastrophic event or the type he repeatedly speaks of will co-occur with his speech.

This is certainly not the way to establish a navi. And like it or not, even as he pretends not to be claiming to be a prophet, such that he might not halachically be a navi emet or navi sheker, he really is making that claim -- that people should listen to him because he will tell them Hashem's plans for the world, and that he has mystical powers from On High that aid him in that task.