I am a psychic (just like tractor driver Nir Ben Artzi)

I've actually kept silent about this all these years, but in reality, I have psychic powers. And I will demonstrate it to you.

1) I can predict the next Powerball lottery numbers. Are you ready to hear them? Sorry, just as I psychically know them, I also am in contact with Hashem, and he forbade me from revealing them. Pretty impresive, no?

2) But I can also read minds. Think of a number from 1 to 100? Got it? Great. Now, I know it, but again, Hashem has not let me reveal it. Too bad, on that score.

3) But this will surely impress you. I can predict the weather. Watch this: Sometime, next week, somewhere in the world, it is going to rain. Who else but a psychic could know that?!

Think this is ridiculous? Sure, but Nir Ben Artzi, tractor driver and psychic extraordinaire, makes claims no less ridiculous. For example, parallel to (1) and (2), Nir Ben Artzi psychically knows where there is gold! To cite Life In Israel, citing in turn other sources:

Bechadrei reports on the speech with some excerpts of what he said. Ben Artzi claims that he knows where gold can be found in Israel, just he is not allowed to say where. Hashem, he said, does not want it revealed right now.

He also is able to predict earthquakes. Thus,

Ben Artzi said that next week there will be a massive earthquake somewhere in the world. The quake will be one that is capable of wiping out cities in Saudi Arabia and Mexico.

As I commented at Shirat Devorah, where she noted that this seems to (finally) be a testable prediction, since we are given a specific time, this earthquake prediction somewhere in the world over the course of a week is no different than predicting rain. Just how common are earthquakes somewhere in the world? Let us ask the experts at the US Geological Survey.

The USGS estimates that several million earthquakes occur in the world each year. Many go undetected because they hit remote areas or have very small magnitudes. The NEIC now locates about 50 earthquakes each day, or about 20,000 a year.

As more and more seismographs are installed in the world, more earthquakes can be and have been located. However, the number of large earthquakes (magnitude 6.0 and greater) has stayed relatively constant. See: Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?

They have a handy chart pitting magnitude against yearly frequency:

Frequency of Occurrence of Earthquakes

Magnitude	Average Annually
8 and higher	1 ¹
7 - 7.9	15 ¹
6 - 6.9	134 ²
5 - 5.9	1319 ²
4 - 4.9	13,000 (estimated)
3 - 3.9	130,000 (estimated)
2 - 2.9	1,300,000 (estimated)

¹ Based on observations since 1900. 

Thus, in terms of minor earthquakes, about 1.3 million a year. But let us just take a look at magnitudes of 5 and up. That is 1319 + 134 + 15 + 1 = 1469 per year, or about 4 each day. What about magnitudes of 6 and up? That is 134 + 15 + 1 = 150 per year, or about 2.885 per week. Thus, we can expect about 3 per week, somewhere in the world. If he "lucks out", it will be one of the 16 we can expect on average yearly, in which case people are really wowed. But even without that, there is zero chance that he will be proved incorrect.

To further bolster the point, here is a Japan quake map. There have been 150 in the past seven days. But this is not unusual. People just don't understand the regularity of earthquakes, particularly in Japan. I should cite the following, again from the US Geological Survey:

Are Earthquakes Really on the Increase?

We continue to be asked by many people throughout the world if earthquakes are on the increase. Although it may seem that we are having more earthquakes, earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or greater have remained fairly constant.

A partial explanation may lie in the fact that in the last twenty years, we have definitely had an increase in the number of earthquakes we have been able to locate each year. This is because of the tremendous increase in the number of seismograph stations in the world and the many improvements in global communications. In 1931, there were about 350 stations operating in the world; today, there are more than 8,000 stations and the data now comes in rapidly from these stations by electronic mail, internet and satellite. This increase in the number of stations and the more timely receipt of data has allowed us and other seismological centers to locate earthquakes more rapidly and to locate many small earthquakes which were undetected in earlier years. The NEIC now locates about 20,000 earthquakes each year or approximately 50 per day. Also, because of the improvements in communications and the increased interest in the environment and natural disasters, the public now learns about more earthquakes.

According to long-term records (since about 1900), we expect about 17 major earthquakes (7.0 - 7.9) and one great earthquake (8.0 or above) in any given year.

So Nir Ben Artzi's predicting an earthquake over the course of an entire week somewhere in the entire world is no more impressive than my predicting rain sometime next week in the world.

But, of course, he has already claimed fulfillment of his prediction. Via Tomer Devorah, translating from Kikar Shabbat:

Response to the Skeptics

In the meantime, last night, HaRav Nir Ben Artzi envisioned in his weekly sermon that "two earthquakes needed to come, in the Galil, HKB"H stopped them."

HaRav Ben Artzi referred to things that were mentioned during the conference in Bnei Brak. "Earthquakes continue in the world. Also, next week. We said that there will be an earthquake, everyone went 'we'll see.' We still hadn't done it and already yesterday there was an earthquake.

"Wednesday, we said in Bnei Brak, and everyone went 'we’ll see, we'll catch him red-handed.' Everyone is on to the next hot thing. Next week also, there will be an earthquake."

I agree with the meshuggena. Next week also, there will be an earthquake. And the sun will rise in the east!