tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post6221849673927538521..comments2024-03-05T21:22:43.426-05:00Comments on parshablog: Should we fault Rav Elchonan Wasserman, Rav Shmuel Kamenetsky, and Rambam for Mispredicting the Keitz?joshwaxmanhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/03516171362038454070noreply@blogger.comBlogger16125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-39461360824624282972009-09-15T01:35:13.480-04:002009-09-15T01:35:13.480-04:00"No, I mean no one has a calculation that giv..."No, I mean no one has a calculation that gives 5769 as Yovel. Just people saw it, saw that his year, 5768, is shmitah by our calculation, and assumed that we need to add 1"<br /><br />ah, now i understand. thanks for the explanation.<br /><br />kt,<br />joshjoshwaxmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05149022516101476797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-34124715959937467262009-09-15T01:20:53.464-04:002009-09-15T01:20:53.464-04:00The relation between the current Yovel and Moshiac...The relation between the current Yovel and Moshiach is based on other teachings, but I believe the Yovel calculation there is not accurate.גילויhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10600628881119650305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-57492229038252051362009-09-15T01:19:20.984-04:002009-09-15T01:19:20.984-04:00No, I mean no one has a calculation that gives 576...No, I mean no one has a calculation that gives 5769 as Yovel. Just people saw it, saw that his year, 5768, is shmitah by our calculation, and assumed that we need to add 1, even though the author already added 1.גילויhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10600628881119650305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-531202920944594722009-09-15T00:58:09.787-04:002009-09-15T00:58:09.787-04:00"No one holds that 5769 was Yovel independent..."No one holds that 5769 was Yovel independently"<br />do you mean that Imrei Binah's reasoning that mashiach must arrive at yovel is tied in to his calculation of that same yovel?<br /><br />if not, what do you mean by independently?<br /><br />kol tuv,<br />joshjoshwaxmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05149022516101476797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-51069374726599189732009-09-15T00:35:25.319-04:002009-09-15T00:35:25.319-04:00No one holds that 5769 was Yovel independently. I...No one holds that 5769 was Yovel independently. Imrei Binah says 5768, I have a shitah for 5776. Going by the Rambam, it would have been 5765... see my online book if you want more info:<br /><br />http://sites.google.com/site/yovelgeulah/<br /><br />Or check the comparison chart here:<br /><br />http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p_YrEhIuWkGbLO9pASa1seA&gid=2גילויhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10600628881119650305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-69586782656264845742009-09-14T22:56:05.731-04:002009-09-14T22:56:05.731-04:00maybe because we can distinguish the person from t...maybe because we can distinguish the person from the prediction. that is, Imrei Binah predicted it as Yovel, which Imrei Bina thought to be 5768. if so, the prediction about Yovel stands for what *we* hold to be Yovel, even though it is inconsistent within Imrei Bina.<br /><br />But then, I never learned Imrei Binah myself...joshwaxmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05149022516101476797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-91160503804399585962009-09-14T22:29:01.275-04:002009-09-14T22:29:01.275-04:00Why is 5768 or 5769 open for discussion? It isn&#...Why is 5768 or 5769 open for discussion? It isn't for anyone that has read the sefer from beginning to end. His prediction was proven false before he said it.גילויhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10600628881119650305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-32766909644988462502009-09-14T15:40:28.730-04:002009-09-14T15:40:28.730-04:00"And yet, the Teimanim are gung-ho for the Ra..."And yet, the Teimanim are gung-ho for the Rambam nowadays, even though his prediction didn't come to pass, so this argument is disproven from a historical perspective."<br /><br />true they are gung-ho, but that was because it was the next generation, or perhaps two generations later, with the people's children grandchildren. forty years had passed, the fake mashiach had been executed, and the people had already reverted to Judaism from Islam. there is a difference between beshaas maaseh and generations after the fact.<br /><br />if in Aish, they use fake Torah Codes among other methods to create baalei teshuva, and two generations later the really frum chareidim are convinced that Torah Codes are bunk, Aish would have still been successful at their immediate and long term goals. if on the other hand they show Torah Codes, and a month later this person who is now convinced is convinced the other way, that it is all false, and that "predictive" codes occur equally as well in Shakespeare, that Baal Teshuva might fall away.<br /><br />"OK, but I'm sure he knows his audience better than either of us do. He knows whether or not such statements are necessary."<br />I know of at least one person, whom i delinked at his request, who was greatly upset at the rabbis who tricked him into moving to Israel because otherwise he would die in the apocalypse, several years ago.<br /><br />i don't know if rabbi amnon yitzchak does follow up surveys.<br /><br />but even if it in fact does work, certain methods can be upsetting. i recall the reaction of certain rabbis i know, when it was proposed in a kiruv conference that they study and emulate the missionary practices of the Southern Baptists, the missionaries. many rabbis would consider it disgraceful. i would frown at a Jewish version of the 700-club.<br /><br />from other snippets I've seen, it seems that Rav Amnon Yitzchak does not believe that their is teshuva me-ahava, only from yireah. He said precisely that statement! and so he is scaring people with visions of the apocalypse, into doing teshuva. i would imagine that inviting people over for Shabbos meals, in the form of Hillel programs, such that they can experience the beauty of Judaism, and become baalei teshuva from ahava, could be effective. maybe not *as* effective, but the ends don't always justify the means.<br /><br />and i wonder at the ends. i don't know what typical baalei teshuva of his are, but do they live normal, well balanced Jewish lives. or are they apocalyptic, *superstitious* Jews? one can go for quality rather than quantity.<br /><br />kol tuv,<br />joshjoshwaxmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05149022516101476797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-4865291692256421712009-09-14T15:18:54.094-04:002009-09-14T15:18:54.094-04:00Since Rambam was trying to combat a specific false...<i>Since Rambam was trying to combat a specific false messiah in Teiman, I would guess that had he had a kabbalah for that, he would not have shared it. Rambam's goal was to take down the fake mashiach, and adding that this was indeed the predestined time, when this fellow just happened to have showed up, would have undermined Rambam's goals.</i><br /><br />You're right. I retract my statement.<br /><br /><i>Also, could you imagine if he had said that mashiach was coming the next year, and then mashiach did not arrive. What sort of discouragement would that have presented to the people of that generation. If The Rabbi was wrong about this, then perhaps he was wrong about everything else, and we should indeed become Muslims! After all, Rambam's ketz historically did not come to pass.</i><br /><br />And yet, the Teimanim are gung-ho for the Rambam nowadays, even though his prediction didn't come to pass, so this argument is disproven from a historical perspective.<br /><br /><i>why did he oppose the skeptic in this way, if he really agreed with the skeptic? why did he insist that he knew this "for certain", and why did he claim to represent the authoritative view, stating "I am basing my words on Jewish writings throughout the centuries." Forget whether in that particular instance he lucked out, what drives someone to say this?</i><br />He's basing his prediction on the אמרי בינה. Whether the אמרי בינה meant 5768 or 5769 is a matter of discussion, but he held it to mean 5769. Would you rather he used more cautious lingo so that people know that the entire basis of Judaism is not based on this prediction? OK, but I'm sure he knows his audience better than either of us do. He knows whether or not such statements are necessary. He deemed it unnecessary in order to inspire others toward Teshuva. And he's pretty much unparralleled in making Ba'alei Teshuva - so I'm not going to argue on his methods as they seem to be working quite well.yaakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08179304707239865515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-41241079115287539372009-09-14T13:55:15.104-04:002009-09-14T13:55:15.104-04:00"But really, if he had a קבלה for an immediat..."But really, if he had a קבלה for an immediate ge'ula, that would have been better"<br /><br />Since Rambam was trying to combat a specific false messiah in Teiman, I would guess that had he had a kabbalah for that, he would <b>not</b> have shared it. Rambam's goal was to take down the fake mashiach, and adding that this was indeed the predestined time, when this fellow just happened to have showed up, would have undermined Rambam's goals.<br /><br />Also, could you imagine if he had said that mashiach was coming the next year, and then mashiach did not arrive. What sort of discouragement would that have presented to the people of that generation. If The Rabbi was wrong about this, then perhaps he was wrong about everything else, and we should indeed become Muslims! After all, Rambam's ketz historically did <b>not</b> come to pass.<br /><br />"he doesn't claim to be a Navi whose predictions *have* to come true"<br />no, but Judaism does have people who were neviim or who spoke with ruach hakodesh. while he does not claim to possess it himself, as far as I know, he presents this under their authority, as their words, and the one true Torah view. compare to the autistics, who claim they are not prophets, but are merely explaining what the prophets of old have clearly said.<br /><br />why did he oppose the skeptic in this way, if he really agreed with the skeptic? why did he insist that he knew this "for certain", and why did he claim to represent the authoritative view, stating "I am basing my words on Jewish writings throughout the centuries." Forget whether in that particular instance he lucked out, what drives someone to say this?<br /><br />kol tuv,<br />joshjoshwaxmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05149022516101476797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-1368143257566679102009-09-14T11:58:41.740-04:002009-09-14T11:58:41.740-04:00Josh, he doesn't claim to be a Navi whose pred...Josh, he doesn't claim to be a Navi whose predictions *have* to come true. He believes his predictions to be true - if they're not, he'll revise his beliefs.<br />You're making a big deal out of nothing.yaakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08179304707239865515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-86465709799812347462009-09-14T11:55:36.547-04:002009-09-14T11:55:36.547-04:00גילוי, that's a good question. However, you c...גילוי, that's a good question. However, you could say that he had a קבלה from his father (as Josh points out in the other post) that such a date is known, so he felt that he needed to share it with the inhabitants of Teiman to boost their Emunah in their trying time. But really, if he had a קבלה for an immediate ge'ula, that would have been better.yaakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08179304707239865515noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-11917378867743693942009-09-14T07:59:44.546-04:002009-09-14T07:59:44.546-04:00here is an example:
"It's interesting to...here is an example:<br /><br />"It's interesting to mention, that based on this prophecy of the Talmud, Rabbi Amnon Yitzhak of the Shofar organization said in a public appearance in Britain just 2 days before the attack on the US, that before the end of the Hebrew year (which was just 10 days away) a major war will emerge. A skeptic man in the crowd asked him how can he know this for certain. The Rabbi answered - "I am basing my words on Jewish writings throughout the centuries". 2 days later he proved to be right"<br /><br />rav amnon yitzchak did not respond: well, if this report was accurate, this is a guess, and it could come to pass or maybe not. rather, he was "sure" about it, and puts up the integrity of jewish writings throughout the centuries against "skeptics" who ask how he can know this for certain. yet you'll tell me that he agrees with the skeptic, that he doesn't know this for certain? why didn't he tell this to his audience??<br /><br />kt,<br />joshjoshwaxmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05149022516101476797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-66510521727113671422009-09-14T07:56:44.980-04:002009-09-14T07:56:44.980-04:00i admittedly did not see enough of his speech, but...i admittedly did not see enough of his speech, but this wasn't the impression that seems to come across. telling people in America that they should come now, because otherwise, there would be a long, long wait at the airport. i wonder how many baalei teshuva, and others, receive it one way, or the other...joshwaxmanhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/05149022516101476797noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-71384736625856219572009-09-14T04:46:26.310-04:002009-09-14T04:46:26.310-04:00Yaak, how do you harmonize your opinion of the Ram...Yaak, how do you harmonize your opinion of the Rambam's intent to the Rambam's prediction that Moshiach was *not* coming right away?גילויhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/10600628881119650305noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5589564.post-30021005683255073782009-09-14T04:34:48.279-04:002009-09-14T04:34:48.279-04:00R' Josh,
1) Your portrayal of R' Amnon Y...R' Josh, <br /><br />1) Your portrayal of R' Amnon Yitzhak's prediction as "absolute" is incorrect. This is obviously not his intent - rather, it is to encourage Teshuva due to a <b>suggested, possible</b> keitz occurring.<br /><br />2) I consider immediate predictions <b>more</b> faithful to the Rambam's 12th principle than distant predictions. Plus, it encourages more Teshuva and less Yi'ush right now.yaakhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/08179304707239865515noreply@blogger.com